本文摘要:The question What is a PC? has been bemusing analysts and industry observers since long before the introduction of the iPad — but especially since. The answer is not so simple. In some ways, its a question of mere rhetoric. But when it comes to analyzing markets and companies, it becomes a lot more than that.“什么是PC?


The question What is a PC? has been bemusing analysts and industry observers since long before the introduction of the iPad — but especially since. The answer is not so simple. In some ways, its a question of mere rhetoric. But when it comes to analyzing markets and companies, it becomes a lot more than that.“什么是PC?”——虽然这个问题早在iPad问世之前就早已让分析人士和业内仔细观察人士后遗症多时,但iPad的问世使他们的后遗症急剧加剧。这个问题并不是简简单单就能问得了的。

从或许上谈,辩论它只是浪费口舌,但是要想要分析市场行情和公司业绩,这个问题又非同小可。Tablets and smartphones have been cutting into PC sales for years. Thats because for many people, the newer gadgets do everything they had previously counted on PCs — including laptops — for: email, Web browsing, watching video. But in general, they dont do everything that powerful PCs can do or not quite as well, such as video editing, hardcore gaming, programming. Many consumers still want or need a laptop or a desktop machine.多年来,平板电脑和智能手机仍然在挤占PC的销售市场。这是因为,对于很多人来说,这些新潮而精致的小机器早已不具备他们必须的所有PC(还包括笔记本电脑)功能,比如发送邮件、网页网页、观赏视频。但是总体上谈,它们有些功能还无法与强劲的PC相匹敌,比如视频剪辑、感冒游戏和编程。

很多消费者仍然想、或者必须一台笔记本或台式机。It might sound silly at first to define a smartphone as a PC. But lots of people who otherwise might have purchased a PC have opted instead for a smartphone, since it does everything they in particular need from a computing device. Thats even more true of tablets — and it will be increasingly so as the differences between tablets, even phones, and PCs narrow. Soon enough, many of us will be carrying the equivalent of a PC around with us to use as a tablet when were mobile, and then plugging it in at home, attaching it to a keyboard, and using it as a fully functional PC.把智能手机定义为“PC”乍听之下也许有些可笑。但是很多潜在的PC买家之所以没卖PC,而是买了智能手机,就是因为他们必须计算出来设备构建的所有功能,智能手机都早已不具备。至于平板电脑,那就更加不用说了——而且它还不会更加热门,因为平板电脑同PC的差异仍然在增大(甚至手机也是如此)。

用没法多久,我们当中就不会有很多人外出带着PC的替代品当平板电脑使,返回家后就把它挂上电源、接通键盘,这样它就变为了一台功能齐全的PC。Hardware and software makers may have helped blur the distinction. Microsofts (MSFT) new Windows 8 operating system can be operated like a traditional desktop PC or via a tablet-like interface that is compatible with touch and gestures. Apples (AAPL) Mac OS, meanwhile, has adopted some features of iOS, the operating system powering millions of iPads, iPods, and iPhones, though the company doesnt currently sell any touchscreen enabled desktops or laptops. And beleaguered hardware manufacturers have adopted touchscreen technology and ultrathin packages that draw from both tablets and laptops. These so-called convertible laptops, like Lenovos Ideapad Yoga, double as both because their screens can be flipped back and forth.平板电脑与PC的界限之所以一天天显得模糊不清,硬件和软件制造商也许也起着了推波助澜的起到。

微软公司(Microsoft)新的发售的Windows 8操作系统既可以加装在传统的笔记本PC上,也可以加装在与手势触控相容的平板界面上。苹果(Apple)的Mac OS操作系统也带入了iOS的一些特性,而iOS是让数以百万计的iPad、iPod和iPhone充分发挥强劲功能的操作系统。不过,目前苹果公司仍未发售任何可触屏的笔记本或台式机。

硬件制造商在竞争对手的围追堵截下则争相糅合平板电脑和笔记本,使用触屏科技和超薄PCB。这些所谓的旋转本,比如误解(Lenovo)的Ideapad Yoga,既可以做到笔记本,也可以当平板电脑,因为它们的屏幕可以360度旋转。For the moment, the PC is confused. Consider how market researchers and stock analysts often measure the computer market. Last year, the research firm Canalys declared that Apple had become the worlds largest maker of PCs. But that was only because the firm included tablets (which it called pads) in its findings. Pads, Canalys said, made up about a quarter of all sales of PCs.现在,人们对PC的概念已是一头雾水。



Canalys回应,“Pad”的销量占到所有PC销量的四分之一左右。Not surprisingly, the Canalys report got lots of attention and stirred much debate. Harry McCracken of Time magazine took the opportunity to poll his readers to find out what they thought. He added his own analysis and decided that a device is a PC if it meets the following criteria: It run apps; it is general-purpose (and not meant for singular uses, like a game console); it is meant to be used by one person at a time.不出意外,Canalys的报告引发了相当大的注目,也引起了一场热议。

《时代》周刊(Time )编辑哈里?麦克拉肯借机发动了投票,调查读者的点子。他还附上了自己的分析,指出一台设备如果合乎特例条件,就可以称作PC:第一,它能运营应用程序;第二,它不具备多种用途(而不是像游戏机这样的专用机器);第三,它合适个人用于。

He then took a leap and said a PC can be any size, meaning smartphones can count. But that assumption distorts the market for the simple reason that most people who own smartphones also own a PC or a tablet. Similarly, there are those who buy a tablet in addition to a PC, and others who buy them instead of a new PC. Granular analyses are needed to get a full handle on how and to what degree both tablets and phones are supplanting what most people think of as traditional PCs, and to what degree such devices are purchased as supplements to PCs. (Macs of course are included in the definition of PC, unless its clear from context that theyre being differentiated from machines running Windows.)他接着作出了大胆的假设,说道PC可以是“任何尺寸”,也就是说智能手机也可以视作PC的一种。但是这个假设变形了市场。



——学术著作),以理解平板电脑和手机到底是以何种方式、在何种程度上挤占传统PC的市场,以及有多少人会出售这类设备来补足PC的局限。(苹果机当然也是PC的一种,除非有什么前提可以具体指出它们与Windows系统的机器有所不同。)Since the Canalys report was issued, the confusion has only deepened both because researchers define the market differently and because the gulf between PCs and tablets is quickly narrowing. That confusion sometimes makes it hard to measure various market trends. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch report on search-engine use in January had to rely on numbers solely from (traditional) PCs because comparable data on mobile searches wasnt available. Is it even meaningful to note that searches on the four major search services — Google (GOOG), Bing (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO), and Ask — rose by 9% in January from the previous year, when mobile data isnt included? Unfortunately we do not have mobile query data to see the full picture for query growth, BofAs note read. So the report threw in the fact that some search advertisers estimated that mobile searches made up about 15% of the total.自从Canalys的报告公布后,人们对PC的概念更为疑惑了。


美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)今年1月公布的搜索引擎用于报告只有唯一的一个数据来源,那就是(传统)PC,因为无法提供移动设备搜索引擎的参考数据。如果不把移动设备的数据算进去,就算得出结论,声称今年1月四大搜索引擎——谷歌(Google)、合于(Bing)、雅虎(Yahoo)和Ask——的搜寻数量同比快速增长了9%,又有什么意义呢?“意外的是,我们没移动设备的搜寻数据,无法体现搜寻数量快速增长的全景。

”美银在注释中说明。于是,这份报告附带地提及了一个事实:据一些搜索引擎广告商估算,移动设备的搜寻数量大约占到搜寻总量的15%。The distinction between PCs and mobile devices remains important for analyzing other allied industries as well. The market for chips that run mobile devices is quite different from the market for chips that run PCs. A Morningstar report this month noted that chipmaker AMDs (AMD) recent troubles are in part due to the headwinds it faces thanks to rapid tablet adoption. Meanwhile, Intel (INTC), which is dominant in desktop PCs, is coming under increasing pressure to show results in its mobile chip sales.有效地区分PC和移动设备对于分析其他设施行业也很最重要。

移动设备的芯片市场和PC的芯片市场区别相当大。晨星公司(Morningstar)这个月公布的一份报告指出,芯片制造商AMD最近之所以困难身患,部分原因在于“平板电脑很快普及”带给的困境。无独有偶,在PC台式机市场占有统治者地位的英特尔(Intel),为了在移动设备的芯片市场作出一番业绩,也面对着日益沈重的压力。But when looking at the market as a whole, sans all these complicating factors, the trend is clear: Over the five years leading up to the release of the iPad two years ago, sales of traditional PCs and laptops grew anywhere between 5% and 15% a year, depending on the year and data source. Last year, sales declined about 5%, and a similar decline is forecast for next year. Over the 2012 holiday gift season, PC sales declined by between 6% and 10% over the previous year (again, depending on whose data you believe), even as the economy was recovering. Tablet sales leaped by between 60% and 80% during the season. Lots of people are buying tablets and forgoing traditional PCs.但是如果我们把这些错综复杂的要素念去除,纵观市场全局,那么市场的趋势就显而易见了:两年前,iPad问世。



2012年全年的节假旺季,尽管经济在衰退,PC的销量仍然同比暴跌了6%到10%(明确跌幅还是各不相同大家各自说法的数据来源)。同一时期,平板电脑的销量上涨了60%到80%。很多人开始出售平板电脑,而对传统PC弃之不顾。That trend will continue. Over the coming months, more-powerful hybrid and convertible tablets will be coming on the market, and it seems clear that in just a few years time the differences between tablets and PCs will be negligible, at least from a consumers point of view, though there will still be a market for traditional PCs for certain computing tasks.这个趋势还不会继续下去。




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